Was my vote wasted - if I vote for a third party candidate

November 2008 is coming up fast and with it a new presidential election. A big question that comes up is can a third party candidate win?

The U.S. presidential election actually consists of 51 separate elections, one in each state plus one in the District of Columbia. (for the sake of simplicity we will refer to the District of Columbia as a state). Forty nine of these states follow the “Winner Take All” system, two do not. Any presidential candidate acquiring a plurality of the popular votes within each of these 49 states, wins ALL of that state’s electoral votes. That means that even if a candidate acquires 49 percent of the votes in a state, he will get NONE of that states electoral votes.

Therefore, there are 49 states where the losing candidates are not entitled to ANY electoral votes! - no matter how close the election was in that state. Therefore, third party candidates etc, that may get lots of votes, but not enough to win the state, get no credit for any of the votes they got within the state.

In New York state Mayor Bloomberg is talking about investing one billion dollars to set up an independent political party. In order for any political party to be effective it must win a majority of the presidential electoral votes. Should it not win a majority of the electoral votes, its efforts would have been in vain.

The probability of an independent third party winning a presidential election seems fairly far fetched. Believe it or not, the “Winner Take All” system was intentionally instituted by our “founding fathers” in order to maintain a two party system.

Using the 2000 census to determine the 2008 electoral vote distribution, versus using the Popular Vote

In 2008 the electoral voting system will be used to elect the president of the U.S. The popular vote will not be used.

The number of electoral votes allocated to each state is based on the number of residents in the state. The presidential candidate acquiring a majority (270 or more) of the electoral votes, wins the election.

Factors affecting the number the number of electoral votes allocated to each state in the 2008 election:
 The number of residents counted in each state in the 2000 census.

Factors having no effect on the number of electoral votes allocated to a state in the 2008 election:
 The number of eligible voters in 2000 or 2008.
 The number of actual voters in 2000 or 2008
 Party affiliation.
 Whether the residents counted in the 2000 census were alive or dead at the time of the 2008 election

Note: Under the electoral voting system, the census affecting the presidential vote can be ten years behind the presidential election.

Factors that would affect the popular voting system if the popular voting system was in effect in 2008:
 The number of actual voters in the 2008 election

Factors that would not affect the popular voting system if the popular voting system was in effect in 2008:
 The number of eligible voters.
 The number of residents listed in any census (alive or dead)